CAPITOL TIMES MEDIA

CAPITOL TIMES MEDIA | FORECAST LAB | OCTOBER 10, 2026 EXPERIMENTAL MODEL PREVIEW — NOT THE APPROVED CTM ELECTION FORECAST. Capitol Times Media is making three research-stage, polling-only U.S. House win-probability estimates publicly accessible as a limited methodology preview. These calculations are real outputs from our documented historical model, but they are not the official CTM election system's released predictions. The production forecast remains in validation, and th

CAPITOL TIMES MEDIA | ELECTION COVERAGE | October 10, 2026 With the November midterm elections approaching, three competitive U.S. House districts illustrate why individual surveys should be interpreted cautiously. This update summarizes published polls in Pennsylvania's 7th District, New York's 17th District and Washington's 3rd District. These are reported survey results, not Capitol Times election-winning probabilities. Pennsylvania's 7th District — Brooks and Mackenzie A

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is entering two competitive congressional campaigns as Republicans defend their majority and emphasize their records on taxes, energy and federal spending. The political battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is intensifying in New Jersey and Pennsylvania as House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries prepares to campaign in two Republican-held congressional districts. Jeffries is scheduled to appear Friday, October 9, with

President Donald Trump is heading to Syracuse for a major campaign rally as Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman and congressional challenger Kailee Buller seek to bring national attention to New York's November elections. President Donald Trump is scheduled to return to New York on Friday evening for a major Republican campaign rally in Syracuse, placing immigration enforcement, public safety and the state's economic direction at the center of the political conv

With control of Congress at stake, Republicans are challenging Democratic-held districts across five states, putting immigration enforcement, tax relief and economic affordability at the center of the November elections. The Republican Party is expanding its campaign efforts into several Democratic-held congressional districts as the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives intensifies ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Despite mounting national concern

An intense Senate confrontation in Michigan exposed major disagreements over immigration enforcement, health care, American national security and the economic consequences of the ongoing conflict with Iran. Michigan's closely watched U.S. Senate contest entered a new phase Thursday night as Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed confronted each other in a combative televised debate that highlighted some of the deepest policy divisions of the 2026 midterm elections

President Donald Trump's push to unite Texas Republicans has brought fresh attention to a Senate showdown where immigration, public safety, economic pressures and candidate accountability are shaping the final weeks. President Donald Trump's latest campaign appearance in Texas delivered a forceful defense of Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, but an unexpected debate controversy has added a new dimension to one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterm elect

CENTRAL VALLEY, Calif. — Republican congressional candidate Kevin Lincoln is making his case for California’s 13th Congressional District with a message built around affordability, water rights, rural health care, faith and public service — arguing that the concerns facing Central Valley families are bigger than partisan labels. Capitol Times Scott Shields interview with Kevin Lincoln Speaking exclusively with Capitol Times Media in California’s Central Valley, Lincoln said h

Democratic gubernatorial candidate’s record on the Green New Deal, immigration and social policy comes under renewed examination ahead of November election DES MOINES, Iowa — Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is facing renewed scrutiny over political positions and statements stretching back more than two decades as Iowa voters prepare to choose their next governor in November. Sand, Iowa’s state auditor and the only Democrat currently holding statewide office in the

Missouri’s congressional redistricting battle is once again before the U.S. Supreme Court after a federal appeals court revived a Republican-backed map that could help the GOP capture seven of the state’s eight U.S. House seats, setting up another high-stakes legal confrontation just weeks before the November midterm elections. The dispute has already moved through state and federal courts multiple times, leaving election officials, candidates and more than a million Missouri

WASHINGTON — A growing group of Republican candidates in some of the most competitive races of the 2026 midterm elections is publicly calling for the war with Iran to end more quickly, as soaring fuel costs and mounting voter frustration turn the nearly seven-month conflict into an increasingly important domestic political issue. The shift is particularly visible in Michigan, Iowa and Ohio, where Republican Senate candidates are arguing that Washington must protect U.S. secur

WASHINGTON — Senate Republicans are narrowing their focus to a critical group of battleground states as the 2026 midterm campaign enters its final weeks, directing money and organizational muscle toward races that could determine whether the GOP preserves its 53-seat Senate majority and keeps President Donald Trump’s legislative and judicial agenda moving through Congress. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, delivered a

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — Missouri’s congressional redistricting battle is racing back toward the U.S. Supreme Court at perhaps the most difficult possible moment: ballots are already moving, voters have begun participating in the election process, and control of the U.S. House could depend on a handful of seats. A three-judge panel of the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Monday that Missouri’s plan to conduct the November general election under its older 2022 congressiona

Michigan’s open U.S. Senate contest is becoming more than another expensive battleground race. It is emerging as a test of whether Republicans can expand their coalition beyond reliable GOP voters while maintaining strong support from President Donald Trump’s political base. Republican nominee Mike Rogers is facing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the November election for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Rogers, who came within fewer than 20,000 votes of winn

WASHINGTON — The 2026 midterm elections have moved from campaign rallies and polling averages to actual ballots, opening the final stretch of a national contest that will determine control of Congress and shape the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. In-person early voting began in Virginia on September 18, while voters in Minnesota, Idaho and South Dakota are among those able to cast absentee ballots ahead of Election Day. Virginia’s early-voting period runs th

The 2026 midterm campaign is entering its decisive stretch, and Washington’s ideological theater is colliding with something much harder to manipulate: the everyday experience of American voters. For years, political elites have treated elections as battles over personalities, slogans, cultural grievances and partisan outrage. But with November approaching, Americans are again asking stubbornly practical questions. What does a trip to the grocery store cost? Is housing afford

DALLAS — President Donald Trump has transformed the 2026 midterm elections from a conventional fight over congressional seats into something much larger: a referendum on whether voters want his political and economic agenda to continue with a Republican Congress behind it. Speaking Wednesday night at the Republican National Committee’s first midterm convention in Dallas, Trump told supporters to effectively treat November as though his own name were back on the ballot. Then h

CONCORD, N.H. — September 8, 2026 — New Hampshire voters headed to the polls Tuesday in one of the most consequential Senate primaries of the 2026 midterm cycle, choosing nominees for a rare open seat that could ultimately help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. The retirement of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen has transformed what might otherwise have been a routine state primary into a nationally watched battle. On the Republican side, two familiar political fig

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — Missouri reached a critical election deadline Tuesday with one of the most consequential congressional-map battles in the country still unresolved, leaving state officials waiting on the U.S. Supreme Court as preparations for the November midterms move deeper into the calendar. September 8 is Missouri’s deadline for finalizing changes to the November 3 ballot. But the larger question — which congressional districts voters will actually use — remains caug

Americans heading into the 2026 midterm elections are confronting a political force that barely existed on this scale during previous election cycles: billions of dollars potentially changing hands based on who wins and loses at the ballot box. Online prediction markets including Kalshi and Polymarket have rapidly transformed political forecasting into a financial marketplace where traders can buy contracts tied to Senate races, gubernatorial contests, control of Congress and