Balancing Peace and Power: Why Israel’s Strategic Victory Must Include Genuine Concessions

Recent diplomatic shifts in the Middle East suggest Israel may finally be realizing several of its long-standing goals: securing recognition of Jerusalem as its capital, preventing outright full annexation of the West Bank, and retaining essential security control. Yet these “victories” carry with them both promise and peril — for Israelis, Palestinians, and the broader region.

Key Elements of the Emerging Deal

1. No Full Annexation, Only Strategic Zones

   As Arab states have made clear, any attempt by Israel to fully annex the West Bank risks unraveling recent normalization trends. The UAE, for example, has explicitly warned that annexation would be a red line and could dismantle the Abraham Accords.

2. Jerusalem Remains Israel’s Capital

   Despite ongoing controversies over East Jerusalem, the consensus in many proposals is that Jerusalem remains undivided under Israeli sovereignty. Negotiations may offer limited Palestinian presence or special arrangements around holy sites, but full control stays with Israel.

3. Palestinian State with Limited Sovereignty

   Gaza, together with selected areas of the West Bank (e.g., Ramallah), would form a Palestinian polity. However, sovereignty would be constrained: civil governance would be under Palestinian authority; major security functions would be overseen or secured by Israel. Internal policing, social services, and local rule would be exercised by Palestinians, but military and border security would remain largely in Israeli hands.

4. Israel as the De Facto Security Power

   Under the emerging frameworks, Israel retains responsibility for preventing external threats, controlling airspace, handling border security, and intervening when terrorism or other security issues arise. Palestinians would have local security forces / police for domestic law enforcement, but no full independent army.

What Israel Gains

• Recognition and legitimacy in the Arab world, which boosts diplomatic, economic, and security cooperation.

• Retention of core strategic zones essential for defense.

• Maintaining Jerusalem as its capital.

• A security architecture that satisfies Israeli concerns about threats from the West Bank or Gaza.

Toward a Lasting Peace: Conditions That Must Be Met

For this framework to truly succeed (and not just be an Israeli “win” on paper), several conditions should be met:

• Clear, enforceable guarantees against arbitrary or future annexation. Agreements should be written, not just understandings.

• Transparent mapping of which areas Israel will retain for security, which areas go to Palestinian authority, how borders and access will be controlled.

• Robust local Palestinian governance: functioning justice, policing, civil administration so everyday life is improved, not just symbolic.

• International oversight or third-party watchers: to ensure rights are protected and promises kept.

• Flexibility for adjustments: peace deals often need tweaks; mechanisms for addressing grievances, disputes, border/corridor access, holy sites, refugee issues must be part of the deal.

Israel appears to have scored a number of major diplomatic and security wins in recent proposals — securing Jerusalem, limiting annexation, and retaining its army as the primary guarantor of peace. But lasting peace requires more than just strategic victories.

For Palestinians, legitimacy, dignity, and meaningful self-rule must be more than half-measures. For the Middle East to move beyond cycles of conflict, this emerging deal must deliver real rights, real stability — not just strategic advantage.

Only then can what looks like “all winning for Israel” be transformed into a win for everyone.