Texas Senate Showdown: Trump-Backed Ken Paxton Battles James Talarico as New Fox News Poll Shows 49–49 Dead Heat

With Election Day approaching, Republican Ken Paxton has closed a two-point polling deficit against Democrat James Talarico, setting up a closely contested Senate race in a state that strongly supported President Donald Trump in 2024.

AUSTIN, Texas — The battle for Texas's U.S. Senate seat has intensified just 12 days before the midterm elections, with a new Fox News poll showing Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico locked in a 49–49 percent tie among likely voters.

The survey, released Wednesday, marks a narrowing of the contest since September, when Talarico held a two-point advantage over Paxton. The latest numbers underscore the significance of a race that has drawn national attention as Republicans work to defend their Senate majority and Democrats attempt to end a decades-long drought in Texas statewide elections.

Paxton, who carries President Donald Trump's endorsement, is campaigning on his record as Texas attorney general and his support for the administration's priorities, including border security, immigration enforcement and federal-state relations.

Talarico, meanwhile, is seeking to build a coalition around economic affordability, government accountability and criticism of the Trump administration.

Paxton Closes Gap as Republican Support Consolidates

The latest Fox News survey shows a measurable change from the network's September polling, which placed Talarico ahead 51 percent to 49 percent.

In the October survey, both candidates receive 49 percent support among likely voters.

The two-point change in the candidates' relative standing is within the survey's sampling uncertainty and does not establish a definitive shift in the electorate. Nevertheless, the findings suggest a closely divided contest as the campaign enters its final days.

Paxton has improved his standing among several voting groups, including some Republicans who previously supported incumbent Sen. John Cornyn during the GOP primary.

The consolidation of Republican support is particularly relevant following a contentious nomination contest that exposed divisions within the state party.

Cornyn, a longtime Republican senator, lost his renomination bid to Paxton earlier this year. The resulting general election has become an important test of whether the Republican coalition that supported Trump in the presidential election will also support its Senate nominee.

Trump's Political Influence Remains Central to Texas Race

President Trump carried Texas by approximately 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, reaffirming the state's longstanding Republican presidential voting pattern.

Paxton has closely associated his campaign with the president and his administration's policy agenda.

As attorney general, Paxton built a national profile through legal challenges involving immigration, federal regulation and the limits of executive authority.

His supporters point to that record as evidence of his willingness to challenge Democratic administrations and defend Texas's authority in disputes with Washington.

Critics, including Talarico, have focused on Paxton's legal controversies and questions about his conduct in public office.

Those competing arguments have made the Senate election a referendum not only on national policy but also on the candidates' records and qualifications.

The Fox News polling also indicates that voters' views of Trump remain an important consideration in the Senate contest, reflecting the president's continuing influence on Texas politics.

Immigration and Border Security Remain Major Campaign Issues

Immigration continues to occupy a prominent position in Texas political debate, particularly in communities affected by federal border policy.

Paxton has supported stricter immigration enforcement and challenged federal policies that he argues interfere with state efforts to address unlawful border crossings.

His campaign has emphasized the importance of cooperation between state officials and the Trump administration on border security.

Talarico has approached immigration policy differently, criticizing elements of the administration's enforcement agenda while emphasizing broader concerns about economic conditions and government accountability.

The disagreement reflects a national policy divide over border enforcement, federal authority and the treatment of immigrants.

Texas's extensive border with Mexico gives these questions particular significance for state officials, local governments and residents.

Economic Affordability Emerges as a Defining Concern

Although immigration and national political leadership remain prominent, household finances have become another major issue in the Senate contest.

Texas voters have expressed concerns about housing costs, groceries, energy expenses and financial security.

An earlier Fox News survey found that 68 percent of likely voters considered the cost of living extremely important when deciding how to vote, with another 24 percent describing it as very important.

Paxton has emphasized lower taxes, reduced regulation and policies intended to encourage private investment and business growth.

Talarico has argued that Republicans have failed to adequately address rising living costs and has presented his own proposals concerning affordability and economic opportunity.

The competing approaches reflect different views about how federal policy can improve household finances.

Republicans generally emphasize taxation, regulation and domestic energy production, while Democrats have focused on household costs, public investment and accountability for large corporations.

Neither campaign's proposals can be assessed solely through the latest horse-race polling, which measures candidate preferences rather than the likely effects of individual policies.

Texas's Republican History Faces Another Test

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

Over the past three decades, Republicans have established substantial advantages in statewide elections, controlling the governor's office, both U.S. Senate seats and numerous other statewide positions.

Trump's victories in Texas reinforced that political pattern, particularly through strong support in rural communities and among Republican voters.

However, recent polling indicates that the current Senate contest is considerably closer than the state's 2024 presidential result.

A CBS News survey conducted October 8–16 placed Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 49 percent, while an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 13–14 showed Paxton at 49 percent and Talarico at 48 percent.

Those results fall within the respective surveys' margins of error, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding the race.

Other surveys have shown Talarico with somewhat larger leads, and the RealClearPolling average through October 19 places him slightly ahead.

The different results demonstrate why a single poll should not be treated as a definitive measure of the eventual outcome.

Control of the Senate Raises the National Stakes

The Texas contest carries consequences beyond the state's borders.

Republicans are defending their majority in the U.S. Senate, where control affects the confirmation of presidential nominees, the passage of legislation and the chamber's oversight responsibilities.

For the Trump administration, a Republican-controlled Senate would continue to provide an important institutional partner on judicial nominations, executive appointments and legislative negotiations.

A Democratic majority would alter that relationship, potentially creating additional obstacles for administration priorities and expanding Democratic oversight authority.

Both parties are consequently investing attention and resources in competitive Senate contests across the country.

Texas, historically a reliable Republican state in presidential and statewide elections, has become part of that broader national competition.

Twelve Days Until Texas Makes Its Decision

With Election Day scheduled for November 3, the campaigns are entering their final period of advertising, public appearances and voter outreach.

Early voting is already underway in Texas and continues through October 30.

Paxton enters the closing stretch with Trump's endorsement, an established statewide political profile and a campaign focused on Republican policy priorities.

Talarico is emphasizing affordability, political accountability and his argument for a different direction in Washington.

The latest Fox News poll shows neither candidate holding a measurable advantage among likely voters.

For Texas Republicans, the election will test whether the party's longstanding statewide support extends to Paxton's Senate candidacy. For Democrats, it presents an opportunity to challenge a political pattern that has endured for more than three decades.

As the final days of campaigning unfold, the contest will be decided not by endorsements or polling averages, but by the votes Texans cast in the 2026 midterm election.