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  • Writer's pictureWilliam Blake

Nikki Haley Gains Ground on DeSantis: FiveThirtyEight Polls Reflect Shift in GOP Primary Landscape

In a surprising turn of events, Nikki Haley, the GOP presidential candidate, has reached a statistical tie with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the national GOP primary polling averages, as reported by FiveThirtyEight. This marks the first time that Haley has matched DeSantis at 11.3 percent in the polls, signaling a potential shift in the Republican primary landscape.





While Nathaniel Rakich, the senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, initially announced Haley's apparent lead over DeSantis, clarifications soon followed, highlighting the statistical parity between the two candidates. Rakich's tweet on X (formerly Twitter) on Jan. 3 addressed the tie and linked to the FiveThirtyEight page displaying the national polling averages for the GOP presidential contenders.


Despite the competitive momentum between Haley and DeSantis, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the polls with an imposing 50-percentage-point lead in this average, showcasing his enduring influence within the Republican base.


The FiveThirtyEight update arrived just a day before the Haley campaign revealed a remarkable fundraising achievement. Between October and December, the campaign secured a staggering $24 million, underlining the sustained momentum and support for Haley's candidacy. The infusion of 83,900 new donors during the fourth quarter nearly matched the influx of fresh contributors between July and September, a testament to Haley's growing appeal among grassroots supporters.


A significant portion of the funds—$16.25 million—was raised through mail and digital grassroots initiatives, illustrating Haley's ability to mobilize broad-based support through various outreach strategies. Moreover, the campaign disclosed that it currently possesses $14.5 million in cash on hand, further solidifying Haley's financial standing as the primary race intensifies.


As the GOP primary landscape continues to evolve and candidates gear up for the 2024 elections, the statistical deadlock between Haley and DeSantis, alongside Trump's commanding lead, sets the stage for an intriguing and closely contested nomination battle within the Republican Party.

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