CAPITOL TIMES MEDIA | ELECTION COVERAGE | October 10, 2026

With the November midterm elections approaching, three competitive U.S. House districts illustrate why individual surveys should be interpreted cautiously. This update summarizes published polls in Pennsylvania's 7th District, New York's 17th District and Washington's 3rd District. These are reported survey results, not Capitol Times election-winning probabilities.

Pennsylvania's 7th District — Brooks and Mackenzie

A Franklin & Marshall College survey fielded September 9–20 among 357 registered voters reported Democrat Bob Brooks at 45% and Republican Ryan Mackenzie at 40%. That is a five-percentage-point difference in the reported candidate shares. It is not a prediction of the November vote.

Original poll reporting: https://www.fandm.edu/stories/franklin-marshall-college-poll-sept-2026.html

New York's 17th District — Conley and Lawler

An Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey fielded September 27–29 among 400 likely voters reported Democrat Cait Conley at 48% and Republican Mike Lawler at 46%, with approximately 7% undecided as reported. The two-point difference is within ordinary polling uncertainty; rounded percentages need not sum to exactly 100.

Original poll reporting: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ny-17-2026-poll/

Washington's 3rd District — Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun

A DHM Research survey reported by Oregon Public Broadcasting, fielded September 17–27 among 543 likely voters, placed Republican John Braun at 48% and Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez at 47% when leaners were included, with 5% undecided. A one-point reported difference does not establish the eventual winner.

Original reporting: https://www.opb.org/article/2026/10/01/gluesenkamp-perez-braun-southwest-washington-3rd-district/

What the numbers mean

These polls capture voters' answers at particular points in time. Sample definitions, undecided voters, campaign events, turnout and polling error can all affect the eventual results. Comparisons across districts are not head-to-head national forecasts.

Capitol Times Media's interactive 2026 midterm election tracker is available at https://www.capitoltimesmedia.com/capitol-times-election-forecast. Its statistical winning probabilities remain under validation and are not yet publicly released. Race updates and election reporting will continue as new verified evidence becomes available.

Methodology and transparency: poll figures above reflect each survey's published candidate shares and fieldwork period, not an independently estimated CTM national forecast. The separate CTM research model has not received production release approval.