“Red Wall Reawakens — Or Falls?” Starmer’s Labour on the Brink as Reform UK Surges in Manchester

GORTON & DENTON, GREATER MANCHESTER — In what may be the most seismic political event of the year so far, voters in the newly created Gorton and Denton constituency have cast their ballots in a nail-biting by-election that threatens to upend the very foundations of Sir Keir Starmer’s governing Labour Party and reshape UK politics for years to come.

Once an impregnable Labour heartland — a seat forged from Manchester’s industrial legacy and held by Labour through generations — this former *socialist bastion now teeters on the brink after two decades of complacency, scandal, and national collapse in the Labour brand.

The contest that began as a quiet, procedural by-election — triggered by the resignation of long-serving MP Andrew Gwynne for health reasons — has become a three-way slugfest between Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK. Polling shows an almost perfect dead heat, with each contender within striking distance of victory.

Why This Matters

For Sir Keir Starmer, a loss here would be cataclysmic.

His party — long associated with the urban working class and multicultural metropolitan Britain — now finds itself on the defensive, heckled on the left by environmentalist and identity-political radicals, and on the right by a disciplined, insurgent populist movement that has turned working-class voters into reformist challengers.

Just days before polling, Starmer lashed out at opponents in an attempt to salvage the seat, denouncing Green policies as “dangerous” and attacking Reform’s candidate on social issues — a sign of how far Labour is prepared to scramble just to hang on.

Reform UK: The Populist Threat Rising

Watching from the wings — and not quietly — is Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s hard-right insurgent force that has been topping national polls for months. Despite decades of Labour dominance here, Reform’s candidate Matt Goodwin — a media personality with a flair for cultural populist appeal — has turned tradition on its head.

What was once a safe Labour seat now has a credible chance of sending a Reform MP to Westminster — a victory that would echo throughout British politics and signal that the white-working-class backlash has not only survived but is now electoral.

Reform’s platform — tight borders, stronger national identity policies, and a pushback against Labour’s wokeness — has struck a chord among voters feeling unheard by the metropolitan elites.

Green Party: Left Fragmentation or New Vanguard?

Squeezing from the left are the Green Party, whose candidate, Hannah Spencer, has energized younger, progressive voters by doubling down on environmental and social justice themes.

But far from uniting the broader left, Greens and Labour have diluted the progressive vote, splitting it in a way that may only benefit Reform — a dynamic that Starmer himself warned could “descend into hostility” if Reform wins.

Indeed, the Greens have accused Labour of irresponsible campaigning — ironically threatening the very left-wing unity Labour says it wants.

The Result That Could Shake Westminster

By the early hours of Friday, all will be revealed — but one thing is already clear: this is no ordinary by-election.

• A Labour loss would call into question Starmer’s grip on his own party and likely accelerate internal rebellions as voters abandon the centre-left brand.

• A Green surge would signal the left’s radical re-alignment around identity and climate issues — and expose Labour’s irrelevance in its historic bastions.

• A Reform breakthrough would be nothing short of historic — a right-wing populist hitting the heart of Manchester and proving that the revolt against the establishment has penetrated even its supposed redoubts.

In short, what happens tonight in Greater Manchester won’t stay in Greater Manchester.